Naomi Wolf: The End of America

Interesting video by Naomi Wolf, on the "End of America."



[[MORE]]She mentions 10 steps on the path to the "end":

1. Invoke a terrifying internal and external enemy


2. Create a gulag


3. Develop a thug caste


4. Set up an internal surveillance system


5. Harass citizens' groups


6. Engage in arbitrary detention and release


7. Target key individuals


8. Control the press


9. Dissent equals treason


10. Suspend the rule of law

Unemployment during the Great Depression

Unemployment during the Great Depression:

1929 -- 3.2%
1930 -- 8.7%
1931 -- 15.9%
1932 -- 23.6%
1933 -- 24.9% peak
1934 -- 21.7%
1935 -- 20.1%
1936 -- 16.9%
1937 -- 14.3%
1938 -- 19.0%
1939 -- 17.2%

[[MORE]]On an apples-to-apples basis, we're at about 19% now according to SGS, with no sign of a slow-down in the unemployment rate, much less a reversal. So we're already worse than 1931.

Based on the current rate of change, I'm guessing U-6 might peak at or above 20% -- that's 24% on the Great Depression scale above and around 13% on the more widely-reported U-3.

What's your is yours, right?

I had an interesting conversation with a friend here in New Zealand today. He told me about a meeting he had with one of the local city Council members about an emergency generator that he had recently installed. They were talking about emergency preparedness, and he asked what the city would do in the event of an extended, wide-scale power outage. The Councilman said they would go around to local firms and individuals with generators, claim them under an emergency declaration, and take them where they were "needed".

[[MORE]]My friend subsequently wrote to our MP to ask if that was true and if they could provide assurances that it wouldn't happen. He responded by confirming it was true, and that they could not provide any assurances. Right after that, he sold the generator in an auction. What good is it if you can't be sure that you can use it?

I have no doubt that something similar would happen in the US.

The moral of the story: in a mixed economy, what you think you own, you really don't. Someone bigger and stronger, including your own government, can walk in at any time and claim it for "emergency" purposes. Not just generators, but food, clothing, weapons and even housing.

The realities of gunfights

Here's a link to a page with some interesting info about bullet stopping power:

http://www.handloads.com/misc/stoppingpower.asp?Caliber=0

It continues to surprise me how many gun hobbyists seem to refuse to accept the realities of a live gunfight, such as:

• Your assailant can easily keep moving for at least 30 seconds after being fatally shot (even with a so-called "one shot stop"). People usually don't fall down and stop like in the movies.

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• Depending on where you're shot and with what kind of bullet, it may not actually hurt that much, at least at first (unless the bullet hits a bone or some other tender area). I had friend who got shot in the leg and didn't even know it for many minutes afterwards.


• Aiming at a moving target when you're under life-or-death pressure isn't something you can learn at the range. Most weekend hobbyists will have terrible aim in a gunfight, at be lucky if they hit anything at all.


• Most gunfights are over fast. Assuming you're actually aiming (as you should), you'll be lucky to get off 2 or 3 rounds, much less a whole clip.

Those are a few of the reasons why I would only carry a 45 or a 357, and never a 9mm. The chart from the page above says 91% one-shot stop for 9mm vs. 96% for 45. If I'm probably only going to get one hit to start with, why not make it count?

And here's a big one you won't hear from anyone except those who have been through it: what's one of the most important pieces of backup gear you can bring to a gunfight? A knife. Contrary to the old saw about not bringing a knife to a gunfight, that's the most effective weapon during the 30 seconds between when your assailant has been shot and when he falls.

How bad is the Dow now, really?

Every once in a while, I like to break the Dow index down and look at the 30 individual components. I just finished comparing it to where is was on Jun 1, 2008. A few facts:

1 company was dropped from the average (AIG). Its price has dropped 99%. It was replaced with Kraft Foods.

1 other company has dropped more than 90%: Citigroup.

3 companies have dropped between 80 and 90%: Alcoa, BofA and GM.
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5 companies have dropped between 50 and 80%: Dupont, Amex, Boeing, GE and Caterpillar.

The average itself has declined by 43.6%.

The top 3 best performing companies dropped 9.5% (McDonalds), 11.7% (Walmart) and 22% (Home Depot)

GM alone lost 45% of what all of the other companies earned together (on a per-share weighted basis).

The companies that are the largest components of the Dow are IBM, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Including AIG, the P/E on the Dow is 27. Excluding AIG and GM, the P/E is about 9.7. Historically, "reasonable" valuations are around 7 at the end of a bear market. Using the more optimistic number, that would put the bottom around 5100. Except earnings are declining rapidly with no end in sight and the impact of unfunded pension fund liabilities hasn't hit yet, either. If the P/E goes to 5 and earnings of the profitable companies drop by another 30%, that could be 2500.

The highest individual P/Es (which applies only to companies earning a profit) are 27.2 for Alcoa, 26 for JP Morgan, 16.4 for Coke and Home Depot is at a very questionable 15.2.

The lowest P/Es today are Caterpillar 4.3, GE 4.7, Amex 5.0 and Chevron 5.3.

A one-point move in any of the Dow components moves the Dow average by almost 8 points.