Thursday, 23 June 2011

Example of conservative investing results in New Zealand

Let's look at what would have happened if you bought New Zealand dollars (using US dollars) 4 years ago, held them in a savings account in a bank, and sold them today. To keep the math easy, let's assume you're in a low tax bracket and don't pay taxes (hey, that's half the US now, right?).

mid-2007: Buy US$100 worth of NZ dollars. Exchange rate = 0.68 USD/NZD, so net = NZ$147.06
mid-2007 to mid-2008: Interest rate for savings account 7.4%, so NZ$157.94 at the end of the year
2008 to 2009: 7.2% --> NZ$169.31
2009 to 2010: 6.0% --> NZ$179.47
2010 to 2011: 5.0% --> NZ$188.45
mid-2011: Exchange NZ$188.45 back to USD. Current exchange rate = 0.81 USD/NZD, so net = US$152.64

That's a 52% gain over 4 years, or 11% compounded annually. 19% of the gain came from a weakening USD vs. NZD alone.

For comparison, gold has about doubled in USD terms over the same period, but pure USD deposits are up only a few percent.

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