Monday, 12 November 2007

What to do about Iran?

OK, let's say Iran does develop a nuclear weapon.

Why should we attack and kill the Iranian people for doing something that other countries have done (Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, South Africa, etc)? If they do develop a weapon, I'm sure a large part of their motivation is self-defense (from, say, other countries that threaten to bomb them).

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Let's say Iran think about using the bomb against a US target. It could be done with a missile of some kind, or indirectly through one of their terrorist organizations. The neo-con argument is the second one. Imagine yourself in Iran's position. You have one or a small number of nukes. Would you really trust some third-party organization to deliver it? Hell no. It could just as easily end up getting used against you. The other way, we're almost certainly going to know who did it. Even if Iran was confident they could get away with it, they could never be 100% sure. Since they know that if they were identified, the retaliation would be huge, I just can't see them ever using a bomb in any sort of first-strike capacity. The real value of a small number of nukes is either against non-nuclear countries or as a defensive / deterrant weapon.

In spite of that, let's say they do decide to set off a bomb in the US -- New York City. A big bomb might kill 1M people. Yes, that's terrible. But is it so terrible that it warrants killing hundreds of thousands or possibly millions of Iranians before they ever do something? It's like killing your neighbor and his entire family because he bought a gun. Sure, he might use against you, but until he does, shouldn't he be considered a lawful gun owner?

Remember, they don't hate us for being rich and free. They hate us because we can't seem to keep our meddling fingers out of their lives!

The best -- and really only -- defense against terrorism (state-sponsored or otherwise) is to mind our own fucking business. Talk, trade, travel, etc, and stop interfering.

BTW, I think the real reason the Bush Administration seems to want to bomb Iran has nothing to do with nukes. Instead, I think the real issues are oil and China -- but that's another post...

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